detection of a weak signal through global noise (f2ad9fb7-75ad-5e75-a41b-278a150b8cba)
Grey zone threats are challenging given that warning requires detection of a weak signal through global noise and across threat vectors and regional boundaries.Three interconnected grey zone elements characterise the nature of the activity: Temporality: The nature of grey zone threats truly requires a “big picture view” over long timescales and across regions and functional topics. Attribution: requiring an “almost certain” or “nearly certain analytic assessment before acting costs time and analytic effort Intent: judgement of adversarial intent to conduct grey zone activity. Indeed, the purpose of countering grey zone threats is to deter adversaries from fulfilling their intent to act. While attribution is one piece of the puzzle, closing the space around intent often means synthesising multiple relevant indicators and warnings, including the state’s geopolitical ambitions, military ties, trade and investment, level of corruption, and media landscape, among others.
| Cluster A | Galaxy A | Cluster B | Galaxy B | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| detection of a weak signal through global noise (f2ad9fb7-75ad-5e75-a41b-278a150b8cba) | Detections | Private Cluster (bd7a51b3-d00c-575f-a16e-6f51e5a67743) | Unknown | 1 |
| detection of a weak signal through global noise (f2ad9fb7-75ad-5e75-a41b-278a150b8cba) | Detections | Private Cluster (bd7a51b3-d00c-575f-a16e-6f51e5a67743) | Unknown | 1 |